No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $8.19K
- Potential payout
- $8.2K
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Polymarket Trader
arii
0x3a32e6f8f95268d5afcdda093fc6c17445ad562e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.22K
- Realized PnL
- $3.89K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $5.5K
- Potential payout
- $5.88K
- Potential profit
- $382.39
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.24K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- User PnL
- -$80
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2.71K
- Potential payout
- $2.71K
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- User PnL
- $609.73
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.19K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- User PnL
- -$1.77K
Yes position
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.11K
- User PnL
- -$940.4
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.77K
- Potential payout
- $1.96K
- Potential profit
- $186.21
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $449.87
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $232
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $239
No position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.6K
- User PnL
- -$1.3K
No position
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $5.8
- User PnL
- $92.77
No position
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $942.87
- Potential profit
- $942.87
- User PnL
- -$460
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $761.53
- Potential payout
- $764.59
- Potential profit
- $3.06
- User PnL
- $133.2
No position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $657.15
- Potential profit
- $657.15
- User PnL
- -$350
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $465.53
- Potential profit
- $465.53
- User PnL
- -$18.96
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $443.68
- Potential payout
- $445.69
- Potential profit
- $2.01
- User PnL
- $101.87
No position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $439.16
- Potential profit
- $439.16
- User PnL
- -$320
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $415.83
- Potential profit
- $415.83
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $327.96
- Potential profit
- $327.96
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $315.83
- Potential profit
- $315.83
- User PnL
- -$250
No position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $297.23
- Potential profit
- $297.23
- User PnL
- -$120
No position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $266.86
- Potential profit
- $266.86
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $206.27
- Potential payout
- $244.11
- Potential profit
- $37.84
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $89.17
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $214.91
- Potential payout
- $228.02
- Potential profit
- $13.11
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $14.91
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $465.34
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $373.82
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $342.48
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.88
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.67
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.77
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.82
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.47
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.48
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.83
No position
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126
No position
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.27
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.38
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.11
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.56
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.4
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.12
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.62
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.12
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $92.57
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.29
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.13
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $78.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes 68.3% 3.49 shares
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes 68.3% 20 shares
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes 68.3% 20 shares
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes 68.3% 20 shares
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No 83.9% 20 shares
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes 33% 6.77 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-23?Yes 68% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 52% 20 shares
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?No 92% 183.45 shares
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?No 92% 50 shares
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?No 91.9% 25 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 50 shares