Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.8%
- Current value
- $22.7
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $2.3
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.68
Polymarket Trader
silverstud
0x3a43a18ee531358ed5db671cf1223634313b67dc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $117.82
- Realized PnL
- $718.81
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $10.32
- Potential payout
- $15.75
- Potential profit
- $5.44
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $1.12
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $1.38
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.62
- Multiplier
- 10.87x
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.33
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.58
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $9.83
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.8
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $13.8
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.73
- Potential payout
- $13.87
- Potential profit
- $12.14
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $12.52
- Potential payout
- $13.2
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $7.31
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.66
No position
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $6.19
- Potential payout
- $11.25
- Potential profit
- $5.06
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- $0.78
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $9.43
- Potential payout
- $10.1
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.31
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.2%
- Current value
- $1.42
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.58
- Multiplier
- 7.05x
- User PnL
- -$6.23
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.45
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.85
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$7.85
N
No position
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $9.23
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.77
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $5.85
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.15
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.1
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.34
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Y
Yes position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.9
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.1%
- Current value
- $2.81
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.19
- Multiplier
- 3.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Y
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $0.29
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.72
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$7.91
No position
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.95
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $191.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $76.67
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.86
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54.12
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.63
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.64
No position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.55
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $23.18
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.5
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $18.59
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.27
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.03
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $15.56
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.52
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.45
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.16
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- $11.6
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- $10.05
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.95
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $8.82
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- $8.1
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $7.74
Yes position
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $7.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 3.7% 10 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 2.1% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 88% 5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 86.4% 1.4 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 4.9% 5.01 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 39% 13.76 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 33% 5 shares
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?Yes 10% 5 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 77% 5.7 shares