Polymarket Trader

0x3Abb78a4f4F0C2549aCCde0FE1013484c5511038-1775774719102

0x3abb78a4f4f0c2549accde0fe1013484c5511038

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.41
Realized PnL: $2.97
Win rate: 40%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 5
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $28.2
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $11.96
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$0.96

Up position

XRP Up or Down - July 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.57
Potential profit: $10.57
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $5.33
Potential payout: $10.25
Potential profit: $4.92
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $8.36
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.02
Potential profit: $7.02
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $5.83
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.54

No position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.05
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 31.4%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $4.6
Potential profit: $3.16
Multiplier: 3.19x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $3.85
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.28
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.57

No position

Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.86
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

Down position

Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

No 20% 5 shares
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Yes 40% 10.25 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?

Yes 31.7% 4.6 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?

Yes 14.2% 7.02 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Up 26% 3.85 shares
XRP Up or Down - July 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Up 9.5% 10.57 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Up 63% 1.59 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Up 49% 2.04 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Up 44% 2.27 shares
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?

Yes 7% 14.29 shares
GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Yes 35% 5.83 shares
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

No 35% 2.86 shares