Polymarket Trader

Johnsansculotte

0x3afef976a5d031b351da42c0ad0ff1f13c1d01d4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.04K
Realized PnL: $4.81K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $612.44
Potential payout: $33.1K
Potential profit: $32.49K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$114.28

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $15.22K
Potential profit: $14.21K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$696.21

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $6.85K
Potential payout: $13.84K
Potential profit: $6.99K
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$633.01

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $294.82
Potential payout: $13.78K
Potential profit: $13.48K
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $30.25

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $180.58
Potential payout: $9.76K
Potential profit: $9.58K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$255.29

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $4.8
Potential payout: $9.59K
Potential profit: $9.59K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.01K

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $12.7
Potential payout: $8.47K
Potential profit: $8.45K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$476.47

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.94K
Potential profit: $5.94K
User PnL: -$371.74

Yes position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $2.1K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$58.93

No position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.32
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.26K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$177.17

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 84.7%
Current value: $976.62
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $177.1
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$7.03

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $5.34
Potential payout: $395.66
Potential profit: $390.32
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$20.32

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.1%
Current value: $48.1
Potential payout: $200.02
Potential profit: $151.91
Multiplier: 4.16x
User PnL: -$7.1

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.7
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5.8

Yes position

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $49.99
User PnL: -$3.99

Yes position

Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $15.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $18.02
Potential profit: $16.58
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.85
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $5.9
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $1.58
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $3.78
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.23
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.02K

No position

Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Ends Oct 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $845.36

No position

Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.61

Yes position

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.51

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $58.97

No position

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.82

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.68

Yes position

Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Ends Oct 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.31

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.87

No position

Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.95

No position

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $23.53

Yes position

Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Ends Oct 6, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.29

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.22

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17

No position

Lula out before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.41

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.2

Yes position

Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.3

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $7.78

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $6.44

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

No 16.5% 84.16 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

No 16.4% 19.07 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

No 16.6% 39 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

No 16.5% 50 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 13% 38.55 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 12.3% 98 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 12.3% 82 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

No 11% 100 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 11% 20 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 11% 30 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 11% 30 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 11.1% 47 shares