Polymarket Trader

Memento.Mori

0x3b06ebdf208baeb617f0546720b09bb79cfd3489

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $274.05
Realized PnL: $1.45K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.3K
Potential profit: $10.3K
User PnL: -$10.3

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $113.51
Potential payout: $236.47
Potential profit: $122.96
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$44.96

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $218.55
Potential profit: $218.55
User PnL: -$156.72

No position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.57
Potential profit: $211.57
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $34.77
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $101.59
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $4.77

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $69.03
Potential payout: $86.29
Potential profit: $17.26
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: -$2.33

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $34.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $5.4
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $22.14
Potential payout: $25.16
Potential profit: $3.02
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.27

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $258.33

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $189.81

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.68

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.67

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.02

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $67.93

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.56

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.08

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.38

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.31

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.37

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.67

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.3

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.12

No position

US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.62

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.98

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.39

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.83

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.27

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $21.5

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.15

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.89

No position

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.93

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?

Yes 81% 5 shares
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Yes 22% 136.36 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Yes 75% 25.16 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

No 77.3% 26.82 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

No 78.7% 62.94 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 59% 29.52 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 77% 35 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 74% 50 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 72% 20 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?

Yes 86% 35 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 78% 26.52 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Yes 59% 9.76 shares