Polymarket Trader

MWM

0x3b37d367aa4f53c8c2439d85ddbc52a3e4716962

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.06K
Realized PnL: $10.75K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $70.47
Potential payout: $3.44K
Potential profit: $3.37K
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$69.52

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 32.4%
Current value: $558.15
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 3.09x
User PnL: -$391.85

Yes position

Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.63K
User PnL: -$430

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$101.69

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$48.9

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.7%
Current value: $147.24
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 10.36x
User PnL: $47.24

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $1.29K
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $50.81
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $988.32

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $19.98
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$609.49

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$42.58

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $822.6
Potential profit: $822.19
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.54

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $19.26
Potential payout: $819.75
Potential profit: $800.49
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $9.26

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $757.93
Potential profit: $757.93
User PnL: -$159.23

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $109.54
Potential payout: $625.93
Potential profit: $516.39
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$59.46

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $618.41
Potential profit: $618.41
User PnL: -$500

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 76.2%
Current value: $461.52
Potential payout: $606.06
Potential profit: $144.55
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $61.52

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $599.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $9.25
Potential payout: $500.12
Potential profit: $490.86
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$55.81

Yes position

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$225

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $469.21
Potential profit: $468.51
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$35.04

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $184.78
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $250
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $84.78

No position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $423.67
Potential payout: $434.31
Potential profit: $10.64
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $23.67

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $371.25
Potential payout: $410.22
Potential profit: $38.97
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $71.25

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.41
Potential profit: $399.41
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $396.89
Potential payout: $398.08
Potential profit: $1.19
User PnL: $196.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

Ends May 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

No position

Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Mar 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $824.28

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $563.52

Yes position

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $545.4

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $540

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $537.69

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $452.75

Yes position

Trump and Biden both win nomination?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $354.63

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304.13

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.92

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $274.25

Yes position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $238.1

Yes position

Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230.64

No position

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.85

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.28

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.22

No position

Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?

Ends Jul 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

Yes position

Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.29

Yes position

2024 August hottest on record?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.07

No position

Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.17

No position

Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.47

Yes position

Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 6.6% 1,525.83 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 78% 256.41 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 59.3% 337.14 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

No 35% 428.57 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 38.3% 1,725.35 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Yes 85.3% 266.66 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Yes 75% 266.67 shares
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Yes 50.1% 399.41 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 88% 11.33 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Up 42% 23.46 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Down 20% 50.55 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Down 39% 50.56 shares