Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$1
Polymarket Trader
shredux
0x3b40cc0e7d77899e36b0d7cec4a070002a675c8a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.21
- Realized PnL
- $38.62
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103.84
- Potential profit
- $103.84
- User PnL
- -$3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $3.9
- Potential payout
- $45.91
- Potential profit
- $42.01
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$6.1
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $3.41
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $42.05
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$6.59
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.01
- Potential payout
- $42.17
- Potential profit
- $38.16
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$7.99
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.5
- Potential profit
- $37.5
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.8
- Potential profit
- $33.8
- User PnL
- -$10.25
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.05
- Potential profit
- $21.05
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $13.33
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $2.1
- Potential payout
- $10.83
- Potential profit
- $8.74
- Multiplier
- 5.17x
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.37
- Potential profit
- $10.37
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.9%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $9.29
- Potential profit
- $8.28
- Multiplier
- 9.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $8.29
- Potential profit
- $6.63
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $8.13
- Potential profit
- $7
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
No position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.7
- Potential profit
- $7.7
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9?
Ends May 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.63
- Potential profit
- $7.63
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.45
- Potential profit
- $6.45
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.71
- Potential profit
- $5.71
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.51
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.24
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2
Yes position
Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92
Yes position
Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $70 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Will 2024 be better than 2023?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer say "Budget" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Biden resign in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?
Ends Oct 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 13% 7.69 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Yes 26% 3.85 shares
- Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 21% 4.76 shares
- Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ?Yes 47% 2.13 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 36.3% 13.79 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 28.9% 36.66 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 30% 10 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 15% 13.33 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 30% 10 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 30% 16.67 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 70.9% 11.11 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 30% 13.33 shares