0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $12.29
Potential payout: $8.19K
Potential profit: $8.18K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$12.29

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.19K
Potential profit: $5.19K
User PnL: -$32.06

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $3.79K
Potential payout: $3.8K
Potential profit: $13.3
User PnL: $1.68K

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $16.1
Potential payout: $2.68K
Potential profit: $2.67K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$30.82

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $537.6
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $1.96K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $389.25

No position

Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $2.22K
Potential payout: $2.26K
Potential profit: $32.72
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $327.45

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $2.21K
User PnL: -$4.42

No position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.19K
Potential profit: $2.19K
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.81K
User PnL: -$15.81

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $1.04K
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $651.13
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $200.14

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$4.42

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $442.91
Potential payout: $913.22
Potential profit: $470.31
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $349.47

Yes position

Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $460.42
Potential payout: $462.5
Potential profit: $2.08
User PnL: $52.74

No position

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $316.15
Potential payout: $316.94
Potential profit: $0.79
User PnL: $140.9

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $276.44
Potential profit: $276.44
User PnL: -$28.01

No position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238
Potential profit: $238
User PnL: -$5.84

Yes position

Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.46
Potential profit: $209.46
User PnL: -$11.89

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $176.17
Potential profit: $176.17
User PnL: -$15.86

Yes position

Ramp IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $14.07
Potential payout: $134
Potential profit: $119.93
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$6.03

No position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $9.61
Potential payout: $62
Potential profit: $52.39
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$4.65

No position

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $13.95
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $31.05
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.67
Potential payout: $44.62
Potential profit: $43.95
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$0.97

No position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $29.6
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.9
Potential profit: $1.9
User PnL: -$1.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.5K

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.16K

No position

Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.33K

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.42K

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.86K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.07K

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.56K

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.01K

No position

Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.6K

Yes position

Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59K

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.4K

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38K

Yes position

Will Eric Adams drop out?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5K

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.99K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.64K

No position

Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 4?

Ends Sep 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.15K

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.1K

Yes position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97K

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.75K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?