No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $60.59
- Potential payout
- $113.25
- Potential profit
- $52.66
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $5.99
Polymarket Trader
cas1111
0x3b78bd6c83648052207dfbac180d0e9271c25ce6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $706.99
- Realized PnL
- $875.76
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $91.56
- Potential profit
- $91.01
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$11.2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $65.55
- Potential payout
- $91.04
- Potential profit
- $25.49
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $3.19
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $58.54
- Potential payout
- $80.74
- Potential profit
- $22.2
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $3.87
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $62.9
- Potential payout
- $74.44
- Potential profit
- $11.54
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $3.76
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $19.6
- Potential payout
- $73.97
- Potential profit
- $54.37
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $58.79
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $28.79
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $25.32
- Potential payout
- $53.31
- Potential profit
- $27.99
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$7.41
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $49.98
- Potential payout
- $50.36
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $20.23
- Potential payout
- $47.6
- Potential profit
- $27.37
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $46.91
- Potential payout
- $47.24
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $25.04
- Potential payout
- $39.44
- Potential profit
- $14.4
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $31.7
- Potential payout
- $39.38
- Potential profit
- $7.68
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $36.05
- Potential payout
- $36.07
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $6.47
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $21.28
- Potential payout
- $34.6
- Potential profit
- $13.32
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.57
Yes position
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.7%
- Current value
- $10.59
- Potential payout
- $31.47
- Potential profit
- $20.88
- Multiplier
- 2.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $30.16
- Potential payout
- $30.4
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $25.52
- Potential payout
- $26
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $25.57
- Potential profit
- $25.55
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
No position
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $25.12
- Potential payout
- $25.13
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $18.67
- Potential payout
- $25.06
- Potential profit
- $6.39
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $1.68
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $24.55
- Potential profit
- $23.24
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $10.34
- Potential payout
- $23.78
- Potential profit
- $13.44
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Y
Yes position
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $2.22
- Potential payout
- $23.22
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 10.47x
- User PnL
- -$2.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.52
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.4
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.15
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.74
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.57
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.87
Nuggets position
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.8
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.75
Nuggets position
Thunder vs. Nuggets
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.9
T1 position
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.26
Warriors position
Warriors vs. Kings
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.13
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $29.1
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.01
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.05
Ognjen Milic position
Jiujiang: Ognjen Milic vs Renta Tokuda
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.85
Celtics position
Celtics vs. 76ers
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.25
No position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.25
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.23
KT Rolster position
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.95
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.09
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.72
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.16
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Yes 29% 22 shares
- Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No 79% 5 shares
- Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?No 85.3% 10 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 93.6% 5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 8.7% 18.05 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 15.4% 6.01 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 9% 12.34 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 27% 37.57 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 82% 13.29 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 0.1% 110.37 shares
- Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Yes 97.2% 5 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 99% 130.94 shares