No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $11.26
- Potential payout
- $93.83
- Potential profit
- $82.57
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.74
Polymarket Trader
GeekyMonkey8
0x3b854c8ed4327dc7e4e2a866461c1adea388710f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $56.37
- Realized PnL
- $8.52
- Win rate
- 73.9%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.6%
- Current value
- $5.47
- Potential payout
- $25.38
- Potential profit
- $19.91
- Multiplier
- 4.64x
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $10.41
- Potential payout
- $10.9
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.41
Y
Yes position
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $2.45
- Potential payout
- $10.2
- Potential profit
- $7.76
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$2.55
Yes position
Diddy released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.3%
- Current value
- $1.47
- Potential payout
- $7.28
- Potential profit
- $5.8
- Multiplier
- 4.94x
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $5.62
- Potential payout
- $6.9
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $6.04
- Potential payout
- $6.34
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $5.22
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $5.14
- Potential payout
- $5.21
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $2.82
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.54
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $1.03
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.3
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.36
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will Google say "Banana" during earnings call?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will Trump say "Excursion" or "Journey" this week? (April 20 - 26)
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.54
No position
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 900M in Q1?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes 65% 1.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94.8% 5.27 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?No 16% 93.83 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?No 91.7% 10.9 shares
- Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22?Yes 49% 10.2 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Yes 66% 30.3 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 19.7% 25.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94% 1.06 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 95.8% 5.22 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?Yes 93% 5.38 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96% 5.21 shares
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No 96.9% 1.03 shares