Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- User PnL
- -$100
Polymarket Trader
0x3c00...2eec
0x3c0011d5c74aca709ae9b450c9a30257f5252eec
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $89.1
- Realized PnL
- -$53.5
- Win rate
- 20%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.6%
- Current value
- $70.2
- Potential payout
- $821.06
- Potential profit
- $750.86
- Multiplier
- 11.70x
- User PnL
- -$89.8
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $17.36
- Potential payout
- $428.57
- Potential profit
- $411.21
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$42.64
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.23
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.86
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.05
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.68
- Potential profit
- $65.68
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.92
- Potential profit
- $20.92
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $18.18
- User PnL
- -$2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$40
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes 4.6% 65.68 shares
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 20% 25 shares
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?No 23.9% 20.92 shares
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 32% 12.5 shares
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?No 1.1% 181.82 shares
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes 75% 24 shares
- Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 11% 18.18 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Yes 13.4% 7.46 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Yes 4.8% 20.83 shares
- Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1.1% 90.91 shares
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1.1% 90.91 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes 0.7% 428.57 shares