N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.6%
- Current value
- $32.63
- Potential payout
- $223.47
- Potential profit
- $190.84
- Multiplier
- 6.85x
- User PnL
- -$37.37
Polymarket Trader
0x3C4277a5d899f8319a54D6d6D8430379CA202adC-1778963222969
0x3c4277a5d899f8319a54d6d6d8430379ca202adc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $216.91
- Realized PnL
- $121.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $157.69
- Potential profit
- $157.69
- User PnL
- -$137.98
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.3
- Potential profit
- $50.3
- User PnL
- -$37.01
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $17.92
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $9.86
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$2.08
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $22.29
- Potential payout
- $24.9
- Potential profit
- $2.61
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.37
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $23.84
- Potential payout
- $24.1
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.84
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $18.46
- Potential payout
- $23.82
- Potential profit
- $5.36
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $20.89
- Potential payout
- $23.47
- Potential profit
- $2.58
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $3.26
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $12.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $7.3
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $19.27
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $18.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$15.8
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.4
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $0.97
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $10.39
- Potential payout
- $10.64
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $9.82
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.44
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.26
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.02
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.81
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
No position
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $3.06
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.04
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.98
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.39
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.34
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.34
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.72
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.54
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 13.1% 152.64 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 84% 13 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 75% 13.33 shares
- Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?No 99.7% 21.65 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 76% 13.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 95.3% 10.49 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 84% 11.9 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 61% 32.76 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 74% 27.03 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 74% 27.03 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 88% 20 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 87.7% 11.4 shares