Yes position
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $29
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.97K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- $8.6
Polymarket Trader
grouched
0x3c443fc04076f90229795c96d4c58ca016d3f66f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.13K
- Realized PnL
- $1.23K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $217.55
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $216.19
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $791.68
- Multiplier
- 4.66x
- User PnL
- -$20.46
No position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $202.25
- Potential payout
- $345.72
- Potential profit
- $143.48
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $65.36
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $165.32
- Potential payout
- $234.5
- Potential profit
- $69.18
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $19.83
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $89.11
- Potential payout
- $220.01
- Potential profit
- $130.91
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$25.9
Yes position
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $5.76
- Potential payout
- $217.39
- Potential profit
- $211.63
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $88.38
- Potential payout
- $155.08
- Potential profit
- $66.7
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.38
- Potential profit
- $115.38
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $61.05
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $48.95
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $5.05
Yes position
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103.73
- Potential profit
- $103.73
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.64
- Potential profit
- $81.64
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.7%
- Current value
- $13.36
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $66.64
- Multiplier
- 5.99x
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $70
- User PnL
- -$10.43
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.96
- Potential profit
- $63.96
- User PnL
- -$25
Y
Yes position
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $16.8
- Potential payout
- $59.99
- Potential profit
- $43.2
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$4.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.69
- Potential profit
- $48.69
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$6.8
No position
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $28.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $11.8
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $1
Pistons position
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.26
- Potential profit
- $10.26
- User PnL
- -$4
Spurs position
Knicks vs. Spurs
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.81
- Potential profit
- $7.81
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67
- Potential profit
- $1.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.86
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.89
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.94
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $103.21
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.1
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $81.82
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.53
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.44
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $52.42
Pistons position
Pistons vs. Hornets
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.19
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.68
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $21.64
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.07
Magic position
Magic vs. Pelicans
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.64
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.26
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $16
Lakers position
Lakers vs. Warriors
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.62
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 11.1%
- Multiplier
- 9.05x
- User PnL
- $15.12
Magic position
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.83
No position
Kash Patel out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.77
Pistons position
Pistons vs. 76ers
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.93
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 44% 22.73 shares
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Yes 32% 100 shares
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes 27.5% 149.99 shares
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?No 22% 160.2 shares
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Yes 64% 20 shares
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 68% 40 shares
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 57% 8.1 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 15.1% 725.71 shares
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 56% 20 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No 73% 20 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 31.2% 336.38 shares
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 59% 26.55 shares