Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $60.03
- Potential payout
- $307.83
- Potential profit
- $247.81
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $11.17
Polymarket Trader
anonoa
0x3c44552ad4c9e58c3b9efaa9d59a1992680c2fff
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $324.97
- Realized PnL
- $1.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.1%
- Current value
- $21.5
- Potential payout
- $267.07
- Potential profit
- $245.57
- Multiplier
- 12.42x
- User PnL
- -$15.85
Yes position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $35.06
- Potential payout
- $91.06
- Potential profit
- $56
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$17.87
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $12.05
- Potential payout
- $77.77
- Potential profit
- $65.72
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$8.17
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $15.8
- Potential payout
- $64.49
- Potential profit
- $48.69
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$21.06
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $23.23
- Potential payout
- $59.58
- Potential profit
- $36.34
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- $4.75
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $27.71
- Potential payout
- $50.84
- Potential profit
- $23.13
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $32.48
- Potential payout
- $42.73
- Potential profit
- $10.26
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $9.06
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $2.72
- Potential payout
- $38.86
- Potential profit
- $36.14
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$3.73
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $10.43
- Potential payout
- $38.63
- Potential profit
- $28.2
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $11.48
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $25.56
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- $4.49
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $0.84
- Potential payout
- $34.95
- Potential profit
- $34.11
- Multiplier
- 41.67x
- User PnL
- -$5.06
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $31.78
- Potential payout
- $34.74
- Potential profit
- $2.95
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $5.49
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $29.9
- Potential profit
- $29.26
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$5.34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $5.7
- Potential payout
- $23.73
- Potential profit
- $18.04
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $4.59
- Potential payout
- $12.76
- Potential profit
- $8.17
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $3.57
- Potential payout
- $12.55
- Potential profit
- $8.97
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $2.19
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $3.69
- Potential payout
- $12.1
- Potential profit
- $8.41
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $2.48
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $11.96
- Potential profit
- $11.42
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $8.97
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $9.26
- Potential payout
- $10.46
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Y
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.8%
- Current value
- $7.08
- Potential payout
- $9.59
- Potential profit
- $2.51
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $3.65
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $9.19
- Potential profit
- $7.06
- Multiplier
- 4.31x
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $6.16
- Potential profit
- $6.11
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.26
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.09
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.5
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.29
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.47
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.58
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.33
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.22
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.32
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.29
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.44
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.57
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.33
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.72
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.69
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Yes 9.2% 30.65 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 4.9% 0.59 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes 35.6% 5.31 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes 36% 4.28 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 1.3% 0.63 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.01 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.08 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 0.06 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 5.1% 1.28 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?Yes 1.1% 0.14 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 35% 9.37 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes 84% 2.45 shares