smallnewt

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $833.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $39.1
Potential payout: $640.96
Potential profit: $601.86
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$10.9

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $384.62
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $259.85
Potential profit: $259.85
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $236.19
Potential profit: $236.19
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $10.7
Potential payout: $227.59
Potential profit: $216.89
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $23.88
Potential payout: $198.96
Potential profit: $175.09
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$16.12

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $9.33
Potential payout: $169.63
Potential profit: $160.3
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$4.24

Yes position

Will Alberta join the US?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $4.22
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $152.03
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $152.49
Potential profit: $152.49
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $5.88
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $119.13
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$4.13

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $115.63
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$10.63

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.75
Potential profit: $123.75
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $10.26
Potential payout: $123.66
Potential profit: $113.4
Multiplier: 12.05x
User PnL: -$9.74

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $120.86
User PnL: -$8.46

No position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $105.36
Potential profit: $105.1
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.74

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94.58
Potential profit: $94.58
User PnL: -$4.46

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.29
Potential profit: $85.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $14.96
Potential payout: $75.76
Potential profit: $60.8
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $4.96

Yes position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.93
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $67.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.48
Potential profit: $68.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Another Canada election called by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.57
Potential profit: $67.57
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.14

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.13

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.11

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 97%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.1

Yes position

Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.49

Down position

XRP Up or Down - February 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.35

Yes position

Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.38

Up position

XRP Up or Down - January 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.02

No position

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1PM ET

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.81

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Up position

Solana Up or Down - January 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of January 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.74

No position

Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?