No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $556.25
- Potential payout
- $1.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$330.79
Polymarket Trader
TraderMurf
@tradermurf
0x3cb5ab667c879cc526670fe6774a3b69c459ed22
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.25K
- Realized PnL
- $5.84K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Valencia position
Valencia vs. Real Madrid
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- User PnL
- -$566.48
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $184.5
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $815.49
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $14.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $914.99
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $85
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $105
Yes position
Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $971.34
- Potential profit
- $971.34
- User PnL
- -$192.89
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $588
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $212
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$52
No position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $8.79
- Potential payout
- $8.99
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.23
Yes position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $340.04
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $320.01
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.03
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.85
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.44
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.2
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205
No position
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184
No position
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.12
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.15
No position
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.2
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,300 on November 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.2
No position
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.74
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $100
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $86.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 81% 999.99 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 80% 800 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 60% 500 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5% 2,182.5 shares
- Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?No 97.6% 8.99 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5% 8,730 shares
- Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No 99.6% 1,100 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 55% 1,514.42 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 99.7% 10,500 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 99% 10,500 shares
- Valencia vs. Real MadridValencia 29% 281 shares
- Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague?Yes 19.9% 964.22 shares