No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$121
Polymarket Trader
oliverbigfly
0x3d7132b61da1533afe09e1c293f479d3d054d427
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.41K
- Realized PnL
- $638.3
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $708.94
- Potential payout
- $770.59
- Potential profit
- $61.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $8.94
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $414.61
- Potential payout
- $505.62
- Potential profit
- $91.01
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $14.61
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $99.37
- Potential payout
- $108.6
- Potential profit
- $9.23
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
No position
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $91.49
- Potential payout
- $100.54
- Potential profit
- $9.05
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.49
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $22.75
- Potential payout
- $28.99
- Potential profit
- $6.23
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $2.75
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $20.78
- Potential payout
- $23.75
- Potential profit
- $2.97
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.78
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $10.76
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.76
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $9.88
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $1.74
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $10.06
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $1.44
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $10.62
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $0.74
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.62
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $1.17
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $4.76
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $0.93
- Potential payout
- $1.49
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.06
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.38
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.15
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.93
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.06
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.32
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.79
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.31
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.96
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.87
No position
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.44
No position
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $8.01
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.09
No position
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.27
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Will Real Madrid advance to the round of 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No 92.1% 108.6 shares
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 86% 11.63 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 87% 11.49 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 78% 1.28 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes 90% 11.11 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No 79.2% 252.45 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No 79% 253.16 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No 92% 217.39 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No 92% 108.7 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No 91% 109.89 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No 91% 109.89 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No 89% 112.36 shares