Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $7.09
- Potential payout
- $3.54K
- Potential profit
- $3.54K
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$38.91
Polymarket Trader
0x3d8891a8DACc3B38748372fb2A51d92F57EC39d8-1776488672016
0x3d8891a8dacc3b38748372fb2a51d92f57ec39d8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $123.45
- Realized PnL
- $1.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.37
- Potential payout
- $2.74K
- Potential profit
- $2.74K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.63
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $4.37
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.63
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.87
- Potential payout
- $934.84
- Potential profit
- $932.97
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.13
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $819.99
- Potential profit
- $819.99
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $15.09
- Potential payout
- $281.99
- Potential profit
- $266.9
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$14.91
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $249.88
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the July decision?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $227.91
- Potential profit
- $226.88
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $219.31
- Potential profit
- $218.32
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.51
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.43
- Potential payout
- $171.83
- Potential profit
- $171.4
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Yes position
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $29.19
- Potential payout
- $166.81
- Potential profit
- $137.62
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$10.81
Yes position
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $166.62
- Potential profit
- $166.54
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.42
Yes position
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $29.27
- Potential payout
- $154.03
- Potential profit
- $124.76
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$31.73
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $145.28
- Potential profit
- $145.06
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.79
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $124.44
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.44
No position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $28.22
- Potential payout
- $117.58
- Potential profit
- $89.36
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- $3.22
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.89
- Potential payout
- $65.79
- Potential profit
- $64.9
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $31.75
- Potential profit
- $30.76
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $30.3
- Potential profit
- $29.77
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $0.61
- Potential payout
- $14.08
- Potential profit
- $13.47
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
No position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.03
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.67
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.05
Yes position
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.22
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.29
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.19
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.55
Yes position
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Multiplier
- 16.39x
- User PnL
- $84.01
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.28
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $59.94
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.88
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.34
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.04
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.86
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.28
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.42
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.83
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $19.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.39
Yes position
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- $15.24
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?No 3% 196.01 shares
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?No 5.2% 96.01 shares
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?No 5% 100 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?Yes 0.7% 142.86 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 3% 65.79 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 6.3% 15.87 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 6.3% 15.87 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 5.4% 92.59 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Yes 0.3% 333.33 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?No 8% 12.5 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?Yes 0.1% 2,000 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No 22% 66.74 shares