Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $29.83
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Polymarket Trader
danilykas
0x3da819ffdc25753d779f7d9d5c09da1ffd3b2ea8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.42
- Realized PnL
- $23.62
- Win rate
- 90%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $4.84
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $26.41
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.3
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $3.8
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.2
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $8.76
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $8.62
- Potential profit
- $8.06
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$4.44
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.58
- Potential profit
- $7.58
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.53
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $3.4
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.04
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.86
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- $1.39
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No 16% 31.25 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 73% 5.31 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 74% 7.57 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 66% 7.58 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 46% 9.84 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 25% 20 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 58% 8.62 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 15% 33.33 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 34% 13.58 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 33% 15.15 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 36.8% 13.59 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 43% 14.85 shares