Polymarket Trader

exmateriae

0x3dd661eacdadbf21484998ae23fb33f9b31a17d6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $168
Realized PnL: $17.68
Win rate: 53.8%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 13
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142
Potential profit: $142
User PnL: -$2.56

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $77.72
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $58.27
Potential payout: $70.21
Potential profit: $11.94
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $7.83

No position

Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $45.77
Potential payout: $60.99
Potential profit: $15.22
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $4.62

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$33

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$32

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$24.35

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $37.86
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $2.14
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.86

Yes position

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.88
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$9

No position

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$8.8

No position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2.4

No position

Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $14.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $5.4
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $1.2

Over position

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.4

Over position

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4.4

Over position

Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$5.6

Over position

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$11.2

Yes position

Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.3

Yes position

Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$3.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$0.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Over position

Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.8

Over position

Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

No position

Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.7

Over position

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Over position

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Over position

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 30% 30 shares
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 70% 20 shares
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 95% 10 shares
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 99.8% 10 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 53% 10 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

No 12% 20 shares
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5

Over 34% 10 shares
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5

Over 54% 10 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 60.9% 40 shares
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5

Over 47% 30 shares
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?

Yes 30% 30 shares
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 42% 30 shares