Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $121.99
- Potential payout
- $595.09
- Potential profit
- $473.09
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$175.93
Polymarket Trader
0x3e47...0c82
0x3e47cefcf28712e9b511da12cc03348143520c82
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $744.32
- Realized PnL
- $968.76
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.3%
- Current value
- $246.08
- Potential payout
- $299.18
- Potential profit
- $53.1
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $79.01
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $290.26
- Potential payout
- $290.26
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $258.33
Yes position
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $67.39
- Potential payout
- $67.39
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.39
- Potential profit
- $25.39
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $21.45
- Potential profit
- $21.42
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $15.85
- Potential profit
- $15.83
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.85
- Potential profit
- $14.85
- User PnL
- -$8.63
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $9.88
- Potential payout
- $9.88
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.28
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $8.67
- Potential payout
- $8.98
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $382.66
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.64
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60.95
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.06
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.24
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.54
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.11
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.47
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.43
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.79
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.22
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.68
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.95
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.46
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.6
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.49
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.86
No position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.75
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.72
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.94
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 60% 27.23 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 50% 27.52 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 60% 80.65 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 58% 53.08 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 67.1% 8.89 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 68% 15.62 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 70.1% 5.36 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 70.1% 6.44 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?No 0.4% 107.36 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 67.8% 5.79 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 66.8% 5.1 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 65.1% 5.79 shares