Yes position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $77.16
- Potential payout
- $428.66
- Potential profit
- $351.5
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$42.96
Polymarket Trader
0x3E4a072Bf427421A34a9b085c0A8796c7Da7DCed-1730836150436
0x3e4a072bf427421a34a9b085c0a8796c7da7dced
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $245.27
- Realized PnL
- $234.73
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.3%
- Current value
- $43.89
- Potential payout
- $196.84
- Potential profit
- $152.94
- Multiplier
- 4.48x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $12.79
- Potential payout
- $134.61
- Potential profit
- $121.82
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.53
Yes position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $55.25
- Potential payout
- $110.49
- Potential profit
- $55.25
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.61
- Potential profit
- $104.61
- User PnL
- -$33.06
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $56.26
- Potential profit
- $56.12
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.2%
- Current value
- $8.24
- Potential payout
- $54.42
- Potential profit
- $46.18
- Multiplier
- 6.60x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $22.72
- Potential payout
- $30.7
- Potential profit
- $7.98
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $4.41
Finland position
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.99
- Potential profit
- $27.99
- User PnL
- -$10.06
Yes position
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.34
- Potential profit
- $20.34
- User PnL
- -$6
Up position
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $6.47
- Potential payout
- $19.32
- Potential profit
- $12.85
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$10.53
Yes position
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.87
- Potential profit
- $13.87
- User PnL
- -$8.37
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $6.55
- Potential payout
- $13.64
- Potential profit
- $7.09
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $12.58
- Potential profit
- $12.57
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $12.04
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $5.57
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $5.92
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $1.57
Yes position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.99
- Potential profit
- $10.99
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.17
- Potential profit
- $10.17
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $9.09
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $7.52
- Potential profit
- $7.43
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$1.91
Yes position
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.47
- Potential profit
- $7.47
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $6
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Yes position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $4.99
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $5.44
- Potential payout
- $5.71
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.77
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.8
Finland position
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.9
Yes position
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.09
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.24
Yes position
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38
Switzerland position
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
Yes position
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54
Finland position
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
No position
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37
Yes position
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.13
No position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 14.7% 54.42 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 46% 4.35 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 44% 13.64 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 23% 56.56 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 24% 15 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 23% 170 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 14% 8 shares
- SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Up 88% 19.32 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 28% 7.14 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 26.6% 7.52 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 15.9% 12.58 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 8.3% 12.05 shares