Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.65
- Potential payout
- $19.8
- Potential profit
- $15.15
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Polymarket Trader
0x3ead...4874
0x3ead0a759e33b3faee403f2865bc86ba4b964874
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $96.62
- Realized PnL
- $111.22
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $5.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.72
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $8.09
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$3.19
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $4.81
- Potential payout
- $9.17
- Potential profit
- $4.36
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $4.08
- Potential payout
- $9.16
- Potential profit
- $5.09
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $4.15
- Potential payout
- $8.92
- Potential profit
- $4.77
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $5.04
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $3.73
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $3.7
- Potential payout
- $8.5
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $1.83
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $4.83
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $8.15
- Potential profit
- $4.65
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $3.36
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $4.64
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $7.1
- Potential profit
- $2.31
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
No position
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $5.98
- Potential payout
- $7.04
- Potential profit
- $1.06
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $5.53
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $3.36
No position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.6%
- Current value
- $5.97
- Potential payout
- $6.59
- Potential profit
- $0.62
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.16
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $2.53
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $3.72
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.66
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $5.59
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.66
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $6.08
- Potential profit
- $0.99
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $6.08
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $5.13
- Potential payout
- $6.08
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $6.06
- Potential payout
- $6.07
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.1%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $6.05
- Potential profit
- $4.6
- Multiplier
- 4.16x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.57
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.43
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
No position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $5.06
- Potential profit
- $0.89
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.52
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91
Down position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.87
Yes position
Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.75
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.75
No position
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.68
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43
Up position
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43
No position
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
No position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.18
Up position
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92
No position
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42
No position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42
Yes position
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes 53% 9.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Yes 35.5% 7.61 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes 22.8% 6.05 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No 70% 7.1 shares
- Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Yes 35.9% 3.01 shares
- Starmer out by June 24, 2026?No 22% 6 shares
- Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?Yes 27% 6 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes 21% 6 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No 52% 9.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 79% 6.38 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 24% 6.25 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 36% 7.5 shares