No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $99.16K
- Potential payout
- $99.81K
- Potential profit
- $648.78
- User PnL
- $2.1K
Polymarket Trader
thoodr
0x3eae57986be5e0ca435102ffe1f14206ffa2e2ed
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $533.41K
- Realized PnL
- $20.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $68.98K
- Potential payout
- $69.47K
- Potential profit
- $486.28
- User PnL
- $1.73K
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $56.84K
- Potential payout
- $57.27K
- Potential profit
- $429.5
- User PnL
- $646.26
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $55.96K
- Potential payout
- $56.44K
- Potential profit
- $479.77
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $36.38K
- Potential payout
- $36.67K
- Potential profit
- $293.36
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $31.69K
- Potential payout
- $31.8K
- Potential profit
- $111.3
- User PnL
- $954.92
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $29.98K
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- $515.13
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $26.54K
- Potential payout
- $26.73K
- Potential profit
- $187.11
- User PnL
- $402.5
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $23.31K
- Potential payout
- $23.48K
- Potential profit
- $176.14
- User PnL
- $270.73
No position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $19.21K
- Potential payout
- $19.34K
- Potential profit
- $125.7
- User PnL
- $184.26
No position
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $16.53K
- Potential payout
- $18.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.74K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $874.71
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $18K
- User PnL
- -$17.13K
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $12.35K
- Potential payout
- $13.64K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $383.88
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $12.84K
- Potential payout
- $13.61K
- Potential profit
- $768.86
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $427.95
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- $85
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $9.36K
- Potential payout
- $9.46K
- Potential profit
- $99.37
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $331.86
No position
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $7.76K
- Potential payout
- $8.06K
- Potential profit
- $302.29
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $53.11
No position
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.68K
- Potential profit
- $6.68K
- User PnL
- -$6.36K
No position
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $3.87K
- Potential payout
- $3.9K
- Potential profit
- $31.22
- User PnL
- $100.26
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $3.78K
- Potential payout
- $3.8K
- Potential profit
- $24.7
- User PnL
- $34.5
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.93K
- Potential payout
- $2.94K
- Potential profit
- $11.75
- User PnL
- $66.06
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.49K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.87K
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- User PnL
- $22.85
No position
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $16.03
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $54.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $942
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $790.27
No position
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $787.85
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $778.52
No position
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $570.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $513
No position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $433.4
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $424.78
No position
Netanyahu out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.28
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.3
No position
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.33
Yes position
Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.05
No position
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.87
No position
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.52
No position
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
Yes position
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.48
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 97.5% 9,280 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No 97.2% 1,100 shares
- Starmer out by June 15, 2026?No 98.1% 7,000 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 98% 967 shares
- NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?No 98.4% 19,000 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?No 98.4% 3,000 shares
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Yes 97.9% 1,200 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 98.6% 1,100 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 97.9% 10,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 97.3% 4,500 shares
- Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?No 97.5% 480 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?No 96.5% 50 shares