Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 21.3%
- Current value
- $439.27
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 4.71x
- User PnL
- -$61.37
Polymarket Trader
katanaAob
@metagammar
0x3f4bab51c0894611045d5faa7cc9605b3b45f574
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.62K
- Realized PnL
- $1.97K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 78.8%
- Current value
- $1.62K
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $437.27
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $63.16
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 84.8%
- Current value
- $1.64K
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $295.54
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $29.77
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $295.47
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- -$39.4
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.6%
- Current value
- $64.6
- Potential payout
- $444
- Potential profit
- $379.4
- Multiplier
- 6.87x
- User PnL
- $26.1
Yes position
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $51.22
- Potential payout
- $256.1
- Potential profit
- $204.88
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- $11.55
No position
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $54.05
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $175.95
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $2.05
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $11.88
- Potential payout
- $222
- Potential profit
- $210.12
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- $1.89
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $157.42
- Potential payout
- $157.49
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $81.75
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $130.01
- Potential profit
- $129.81
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$16.72
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.3%
- Current value
- $47.8
- Potential payout
- $128.32
- Potential profit
- $80.52
- Multiplier
- 2.68x
- User PnL
- $35.38
Yes position
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $40.8
- Potential payout
- $100.75
- Potential profit
- $59.95
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $12.6
Yes position
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.85
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $7.04
- Potential payout
- $88.5
- Potential profit
- $81.46
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$2.96
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $84.02
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$6.02
Yes position
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $73.77
- Potential profit
- $67.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $3.66
- Potential payout
- $71.03
- Potential profit
- $67.37
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.8%
- Current value
- $11.66
- Potential payout
- $62.2
- Potential profit
- $50.54
- Multiplier
- 5.33x
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $54.02
- Potential payout
- $54.24
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- User PnL
- $10.37
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $49.88
- Potential payout
- $50.01
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $39.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $8.56
Yes position
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.99
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $15.39
- Potential payout
- $38
- Potential profit
- $22.61
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$9.88
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $29.75
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $332.51
No position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.72
Yes position
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.75
Yes position
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.06
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.6
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.68
Yes position
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18?
Ends Oct 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.56
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.94
T1 position
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
Ends Nov 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.26
Minnesota position
New Mexico vs. Minnesota
Ends Dec 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.72
KT Rolster position
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.1
No position
Blue wave in 2026?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- $59.78
KT Rolster position
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.31
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.42
Eagles position
Eagles vs. Packers
Ends Nov 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.8
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.19
T1 position
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.5
Suns position
Pacers vs. Suns
Ends Nov 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43
Yes position
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22?
Ends Nov 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.5
Central Michigan position
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?No 97% 5 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 73% 25.27 shares
- Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?No 73% 15.16 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 81% 6.05 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.8% 125 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.8% 125 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 97.6% 5 shares
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Yes 45% 15.34 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 19% 56 shares
- Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?No 39% 20.5 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 82% 10 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 82% 16 shares