Polymarket Trader

lisboalisboa

0x3fe1e73d9c8feb7342791e2ece10831133ae8833

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $180.99
Realized PnL: $118.66
Win rate: 88.9%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 18
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $762.5
Potential profit: $762.5
User PnL: -$40

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $682.44
Potential profit: $682.44
User PnL: -$34

Yes position

Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $14.93
Potential payout: $563.49
Potential profit: $548.56
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$5.07

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $72.5
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $177.5
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $52.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $14.07
Potential payout: $122.38
Potential profit: $108.3
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.71
Potential profit: $110.71
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$7.7

No position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.36
Potential profit: $101.36
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $75.65
Potential payout: $82.23
Potential profit: $6.58
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $55.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.13
Potential profit: $78.13
User PnL: -$25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.34
Potential payout: $68.49
Potential profit: $67.16
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$3.66

Over position

Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $59.99
User PnL: -$5.33

Yes position

Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37
Potential profit: $37
User PnL: -$15.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.67
Potential profit: $26.67
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $18.87
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.91

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.12

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.3

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.3

Yes position

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.83

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.15

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.72

Yes position

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$19.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 30% 82.22 shares
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 30.8% 100.73 shares
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 15.7% 63.72 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 39% 25.64 shares
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

Over 3% 66.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Down 58% 6.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Down 48% 6.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Up 42% 8.82 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Up 34% 8.82 shares
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Yes 0.8% 250 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 6% 54.74 shares
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 3.6% 277.78 shares