No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $14.39
- Potential payout
- $14.88
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.34
Polymarket Trader
0x403b...2950
0x403bde9f71cafb01cecec1c130c02d10f2592950
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $23.38
- Realized PnL
- $7.74
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $3.45
- Potential payout
- $3.47
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $2.21
- Potential payout
- $2.64
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.27
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $1.12
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.03
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $0.62
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 81% 1.23 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 71.3% 1.4 shares
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?No 99.3% 1.02 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 97.2% 1.03 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 99.5% 23.51 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 95% 1.05 shares