Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $1.47K
- Potential payout
- $2.05K
- Potential profit
- $584.25
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $417.86
Polymarket Trader
polyshit
0x4067119020a3b9b6719983ebeb87d8b5eac182be
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.01K
- Realized PnL
- $536.59
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $541.31
- Potential payout
- $1.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$408.69
Resolved Context
Closed positions
US position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $92.88
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $65
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58
No position
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.01
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.99
Yes position
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.78
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.45
Yes position
Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.7
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.8
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.6
Yes position
OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.2
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.2
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.75
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
Ends Aug 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.06
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
No position
Fed rate cut by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46
No position
Yoon arrested by Friday?
Ends Jan 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
Iran Nuke by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 41% 100 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 89% 15 shares
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?Yes 99% 999.6 shares
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?Yes 91% 20.92 shares
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?Yes 88% 14.93 shares
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?Yes 6% 10 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 43% 250.01 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 45% 250.01 shares
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Yes 82.3% 5 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 67% 1,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 63% 500 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 63% 100 shares