Polymarket Trader

moonlight2020

0x407dd149f1e92c91d0053e0240e03318a1e01bae

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $51.13K
Realized PnL: $51.58K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.7%
Current value: $15.06K
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $24.94K
Multiplier: 2.66x
User PnL: -$4.94K

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62.4%
Current value: $24.94K
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $15.06K
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $4.94K

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $1.47K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $18.53K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$130

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8K
Potential payout: $8K
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: $237.96

No position

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.49K
Potential profit: $3.49K
User PnL: -$1.71K

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $18
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.98K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$152.47

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $28.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$291.22

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.12K
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $0.56
User PnL: $371.22

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $339.83
Potential payout: $340
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $50.83

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $158.2
Potential payout: $158.28
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $6.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.51K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.23K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.11K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.1K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $3.66K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63K

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.22K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81K

No position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05K

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $855.65

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $850.34

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $760.3

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $740

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $711.37

No position

Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $643.16

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $608.32

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $559.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 45% 4,999.91 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 44% 2,000 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 43% 664 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 43.6% 2,000 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

No 99.9% 30,000 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 68.9% 372.65 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Yes 85% 40 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 94.8% 100 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 22.8% 2,000 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 47% 2,000 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 49.5% 640.68 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 42.9% 281.41 shares