No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.33K
- Potential profit
- $14.33K
- User PnL
- -$527.98
Polymarket Trader
Daxd
0x40960a02b3961fcbefdfa76eca252a929c547c34
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $280.77
- Realized PnL
- -$76.89
- Win rate
- 16.7%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 6
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $191.61
- Potential payout
- $456.22
- Potential profit
- $264.61
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- -$13.39
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $357.14
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $47.03
- Potential payout
- $303.39
- Potential profit
- $256.37
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$22.97
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $23.15
- Potential payout
- $185.19
- Potential profit
- $162.04
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$26.85
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.62
- Potential payout
- $178.57
- Potential profit
- $177.95
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$24.37
Yes position
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $156.82
- Potential profit
- $156.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.92
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $18.29
- Potential payout
- $114.29
- Potential profit
- $96
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$21.71
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.11
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$60
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 39% 141.03 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 27% 74.07 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 18% 416.66 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 49% 204.08 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No 3.5% 11,428.57 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No 3.8% 2,842.11 shares
- Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?Yes 8.3% 156.82 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 21.8% 229.32 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 45% 111.11 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 27% 11.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 4.2% 357.14 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No 37% 108.11 shares