Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$14.91
Polymarket Trader
0x40b5E3e16a3Fa23942F563B570aa74287466596D-1745875788773
0x40b5e3e16a3fa23942f563b570aa74287466596d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $882.74
- Realized PnL
- $1.3K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $258.28
- Potential payout
- $593.74
- Potential profit
- $335.46
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $92.42
No position
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $297.72
- Potential payout
- $454.54
- Potential profit
- $156.82
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $10.19
No position
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $22.95
- Potential payout
- $269.99
- Potential profit
- $247.04
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$131.9
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.6%
- Current value
- $43.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $156.9
- Multiplier
- 4.64x
- User PnL
- $9.3
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.3%
- Current value
- $20.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $179.5
- Multiplier
- 9.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.3%
- Current value
- $32.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $167.5
- Multiplier
- 6.15x
- User PnL
- $15.1
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $11.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $188.7
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$5.9
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.3%
- Current value
- $26.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $173.5
- Multiplier
- 7.55x
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $15.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $184.5
- Multiplier
- 12.90x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $197.1
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $9.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $190.9
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.37
- Potential payout
- $149.67
- Potential profit
- $149.3
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$52.21
Yes position
US forces in Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.94
- Potential profit
- $111.94
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $67
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $33
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.75
- Potential profit
- $83.75
- User PnL
- -$24.29
No position
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $49.2
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $10.8
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Coinbase say "International" during earnings call?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Databricks IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $9.04
- Potential payout
- $53.18
- Potential profit
- $44.14
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$24.39
Yes position
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43
- Potential profit
- $43
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $11.38
- Potential payout
- $36.7
- Potential profit
- $25.32
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.46
Yes position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $28
- User PnL
- -$3.61
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.97
- Potential profit
- $26.97
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.6
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Coinbase say "Blockchain" during earnings call?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $332.09
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 5 at 5 PM ET?
Ends Jun 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $217.5
No position
Tuyo FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 80%
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $129.09
No position
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.28
Yes position
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.82
Yes position
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.69
Yes position
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.03
No position
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.28
Yes position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.91
No position
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.14
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 64%
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $18.31
Yes position
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.6
Yes position
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.54
No position
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.89
No position
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $13.34
No position
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.91
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.7
Yes position
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.04
No position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.68
Yes position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $10.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Yes 84% 31 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 19% 60 shares
- Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?No 86% 11.03 shares
- Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?No 68% 8 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes 47% 12 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes 45% 5 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes 46% 7.7 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes 45.1% 12 shares
- Tuyo FDV above $150M one day after launch?No 87.7% 328.18 shares
- Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027?No 66% 39.36 shares
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Yes 50% 10 shares
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Yes 28% 555 shares