Polymarket Trader

kostikas

0x40cb615aa4b329ec478a38cb9e4908e10a984dbc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $53.56
Realized PnL: $173.95
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 22?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.33K
Potential profit: $18.33K
User PnL: -$49.98

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.83K
Potential profit: $15.83K
User PnL: -$34.98

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.51K
Potential profit: $5.51K
User PnL: -$76

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

French confidence vote fails?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $631.25
Potential profit: $631.25
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $604.13
Potential profit: $604.13
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$10

No position

Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $545.95
Potential profit: $545.95
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $480.73
Potential profit: $480.73
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $24.69
Potential payout: $433.07
Potential profit: $408.39
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: -$15.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on December 21?

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $421.26
Potential profit: $421.26
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $243.9
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Piráti get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243.23
Potential profit: $243.23
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.7
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $197.17
Potential profit: $197.17
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.45
Potential profit: $145.45
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.3%
Current value: $27.57
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $115.29
Multiplier: 5.18x
User PnL: -$12.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.3

Yes position

Megaquake by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.57

No position

U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.29

Yes position

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.75

No position

ECB rate cut in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.46

No position

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

Ends Nov 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.4

No position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.93

No position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will Emilio Gonzalez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.96

No position

Will Joe Biden make an appearance by September 15?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.54

No position

Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.6

No position

Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.45

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.94

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.7

No position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.6

No position

Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.02

No position

Will Powell say "Pandemic" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.89

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.79

No position

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

No position

Tucker Carlson confirmed CIA operative by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52

No position

Fed rate cut by September meeting?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.07

Yes position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.79

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 6.9% 290.22 shares
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 56.3% 88.88 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 67% 29.85 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

No 51% 394.17 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

No 52% 201.87 shares
Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025?

No 99.4% 41.66 shares
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on December 21?

Yes 4.7% 421.26 shares
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 14% 142.86 shares
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?

Yes 4.2% 480.73 shares
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.8% 555.56 shares
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Yes 0.1% 3,000 shares
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Yes 42% 103.09 shares