No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$3
Polymarket Trader
0x413b...b488
0x413b9d26078b989103c5811e662bad00ec5db488
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $1.15K
- Realized PnL
- $2.01K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $388.63
- Potential payout
- $2.42K
- Potential profit
- $2.03K
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- $38.63
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $31.42
- Potential payout
- $2.17K
- Potential profit
- $2.14K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$205.38
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $91.82
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.73K
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$8.18
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $89.84
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$10.16
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $20.67
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- $0.67
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $11.57
- Potential payout
- $925.95
- Potential profit
- $914.38
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.43
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $116
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $684
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$84
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $55.17
- Potential payout
- $745.59
- Potential profit
- $690.41
- Multiplier
- 13.51x
- User PnL
- $5.17
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $160.8
- Potential payout
- $670
- Potential profit
- $509.2
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$40.2
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $16.34
- Potential payout
- $573.36
- Potential profit
- $557.02
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$3.66
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $556.41
- Potential profit
- $556.41
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $44.74
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $481.58
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$255.26
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $510.06
- Potential profit
- $510.06
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$25
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $331.2
- Potential profit
- $331.2
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 8.8%
- Current value
- $27.61
- Potential payout
- $315.51
- Potential profit
- $287.9
- Multiplier
- 11.43x
- User PnL
- $7.61
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $137.96
- Potential profit
- $137.96
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $98.92
- Potential payout
- $133.67
- Potential profit
- $34.75
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $352.38
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $239.11
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.88
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.57
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.56
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.24
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $94.79
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.98
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $73.93
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $70.59
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $67.16
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.2%
- Multiplier
- 2.77x
- User PnL
- $63.52
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.1%
- Multiplier
- 4.75x
- User PnL
- $48.7
Yes position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.32
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.2
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $38.52
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- $38.5
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $31.82
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.88
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.65
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $23.44
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 31% 641.94 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 15.1% 331.2 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 94% 256.66 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 61% 163.93 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 25% 800 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 66.9% 224.12 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 72% 92.73 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13?Yes 7.2% 137.96 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 20% 1,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 13% 1,866.66 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 10.9% 2,166.64 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 10% 997.97 shares