Polymarket Trader

welder

0x413f234ecb0349df61c90088c5bef78b42162a15

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $25.62
Realized PnL: $1.26K
Win rate: 26.7%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $15K
User PnL: -$34.98

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 14?

Ends Sep 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$40.4

Yes position

Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later?

Ends Sep 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$53

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $533.88
Potential profit: $533.88
User PnL: -$64

Yes position

Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?

Ends Jul 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $529
Potential profit: $529
User PnL: -$5.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $522.73
Potential profit: $522.73
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.94
Potential profit: $399.94
User PnL: -$49.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $321.53
Potential profit: $321.53
User PnL: -$55.7

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $299.99
User PnL: -$93

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270
Potential profit: $270
User PnL: -$99.9

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$9.9

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?

Ends Jul 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.5
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$4.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.27
Potential profit: $181.27
User PnL: -$43.63

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $19.12
Potential payout: $159.32
Potential profit: $140.2
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.57
Potential profit: $132.57
User PnL: -$3.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.99
Potential profit: $109.99
User PnL: -$2.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.57
Potential profit: $78.57
User PnL: -$29.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$1.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.64
Potential profit: $59.64
User PnL: -$11.33

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73K

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $356.4

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.1

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?

Ends Jun 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.4

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?

Ends Jun 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?

Ends Jun 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$51.99

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$78.74

Yes position

Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$135.29

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$140.82

No position

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$198.89

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$267.09

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Yes 2.5% 40 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Down 8% 10 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Down 1% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Up 1% 500 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Up 22% 22.73 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

No 12% 533.88 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Down 9% 44.26 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Down 22% 45.12 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Down 26.3% 37.64 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Down 36.4% 54.25 shares