Polymarket Trader

liveman

0x425bcad7cd516541c5c8ccd85c9d19a75853b6c4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.74K
Realized PnL: $247.22
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $835
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $165
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $335

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $735
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $265
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $235

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $165
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $835
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$335

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $478.35
Potential payout: $587
Potential profit: $108.65
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $26.36

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $419.17
Potential payout: $502
Potential profit: $82.83
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$22.59

Yes position

Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$77

Yes position

Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

Ends Jul 27, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $46.63
Potential payout: $92.34
Potential profit: $45.71
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $33.92
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $1.09
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $28.36
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $1.5
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $77.55

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.72

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.15

Yes position

Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.21

Yes position

Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.32

No position

Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.7

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.95

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Down position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.54

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.2

Yes position

Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.96

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

No position

Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

No position

Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.45

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.4

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Yes 20% 399.99 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Yes 34% 96.58 shares
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?

No 98% 29 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Yes 34% 300 shares
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%?

No 99.9% 5 shares
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

No 65% 8.25 shares
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

No 67% 5 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

No 4% 16.81 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Yes 38% 18.3 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

No 8% 10 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

No 3.9% 1,868.35 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

No 5% 254.06 shares