Polymarket Trader

Kuomintang

@Blueskmtaa

0x426227d4a9c4ad5a1aae7f2706238f2154b9abaa

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.63K
Realized PnL: $3.36K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $61
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.94K
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC?

Ends Sep 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.04K
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $11.59
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $980.52
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $732.04
Potential payout: $732.41
Potential profit: $0.37
User PnL: $93.25

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $92.44
Potential payout: $637.51
Potential profit: $545.07
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$184.05

No position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $452.77
Potential payout: $616.01
Potential profit: $163.24
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $13.7

No position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $251.97
Potential payout: $592.87
Potential profit: $340.9
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $417.96
Potential profit: $416.92
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$34.57

No position

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $141.44
Potential payout: $310.86
Potential profit: $169.42
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jul 21, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $295.7
Potential payout: $305
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.95

Yes position

Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?

Ends Sep 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $229.11
Potential payout: $233.42
Potential profit: $4.32
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $93.91
Potential payout: $220.98
Potential profit: $127.06
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $5.71

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $203.19
Potential payout: $212.77
Potential profit: $9.57
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $165
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $9

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 54.9%
Current value: $109.8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $90.2
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $147
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $53
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$11

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $193.69
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $78.3
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $101.7
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$5.2

Yes position

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $22.64
Potential payout: $167.71
Potential profit: $145.07
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$43.28

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $166.07
Potential profit: $165.41
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$11.96

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $90.75
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $59.25
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$5.25

No position

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $108.61
Potential payout: $108.99
Potential profit: $0.38
User PnL: $15.97

No position

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Ends Oct 21, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.55
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $7.85

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.7
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$7.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $412.44

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $245.1

No position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $239.13

No position

Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $209.03

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.23

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.15

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.1

No position

Will Iran strike Turkey in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.25

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.9

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.31

No position

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.89

No position

Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.32

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.23

Yes position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.79

No position

Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.33

Yes position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.21

Yes position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.17

Yes position

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.33

No position

Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.37

No position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.9%
Multiplier: 2.71x
User PnL: $81.64

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.53

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Yes 71% 150 shares
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Yes 90% 222.22 shares
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 64% 15 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.1% 1,610 shares
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.4% 952.89 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Yes 85% 100 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Yes 93.9% 300 shares
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

No 94% 212.77 shares
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Yes 90% 277.78 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 96.8% 51.65 shares
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 28% 100 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 20.3% 79.74 shares