No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $61.88
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $388.13
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- $12.38
Polymarket Trader
Joebidenswife
0x42e1073faada3b581c3cfce5e725628ad601a1d2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $442.46
- Realized PnL
- $3.85K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $112.09
- Potential payout
- $415.14
- Potential profit
- $303.05
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$20.91
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $225
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $75
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $43.5
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $106.5
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$45
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.9
- Potential profit
- $11.9
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $624
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.14
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $157.41
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.58
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.9%
- Multiplier
- 4.80x
- User PnL
- $73.45
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.47
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.75
Down position
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Oct 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.75
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.4
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.56
Yes position
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.6
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.52
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 11% 450 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes 87% 300 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 59% 150 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 33% 30.3 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 31% 1,271.42 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ETDown 40% 89.28 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ETDown 28% 89.29 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ETUp 42% 11.9 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ETDown 79.5% 138.16 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ETDown 72.4% 138.16 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 28% 1,071.43 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 39% 200 shares