Polymarket Trader

ZarD

0x437e898e21bca14862f81fa952b7aec7d8f01555

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $251.36
Realized PnL: $63.64
Win rate: 25%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $812.91
Potential profit: $812.91
User PnL: -$10

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $158.95
Potential payout: $357.18
Potential profit: $198.24
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$71.05

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350.31
Potential profit: $350.31
User PnL: -$49

Yes position

Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $194.09
Potential profit: $194.09
User PnL: -$90.43

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $69.62
Potential payout: $163.8
Potential profit: $94.19
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$23.72

Yes position

Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.15
Potential profit: $148.15
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $106.38
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $22.8
Potential payout: $106.04
Potential profit: $83.24
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$27.2

Yes position

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$2.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $632.04

Yes position

Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $424.72

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.16

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.79

No position

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will Thierry Beaudet be the next Prime Minister of France?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.64

Yes position

Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.93

Yes position

Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$23.25

Yes position

Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$29.51

Yes position

Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$36.86

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$89.69

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$101.27

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$135.96

Yes position

Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$162.46

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$398.55

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?

Yes 7% 35.71 shares
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal?

Yes 8% 31.25 shares
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal?

Yes 2.7% 148.15 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 52% 57.69 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 1,250 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 3,333.33 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 12,333.33 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 1,666.67 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.8% 3,125 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.6% 666.67 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.7% 7,142.86 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 47.2% 106.04 shares