Polymarket Trader

incognitoX

0x43b441cc6c267c329358e2aadf257b1c5b97bbfa

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $89.64
Realized PnL: $297.29
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $834.58
Potential profit: $834.58
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $722.71
Potential profit: $722.71
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $597.16
Potential profit: $597.16
User PnL: -$3.56

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $594.77
Potential profit: $594.77
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $9.54
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $175.65
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.33
Potential profit: $82.33
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $68.22
Potential profit: $67.84
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$9.62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.01
Potential profit: $51.01
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.26
Potential profit: $29.26
User PnL: -$25

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.62
Potential profit: $26.62
User PnL: -$20

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.1%
Current value: $16.07
Potential payout: $19.12
Potential profit: $3.05
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.07

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62.2%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $16.45
Potential profit: $6.23
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $13.09
Potential payout: $15.31
Potential profit: $2.22
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $14.82
Potential payout: $14.95
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $4.82

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.89
Potential profit: $13.89
User PnL: -$5

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $13.09
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $3.09

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $12.43
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $0.72
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.58

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.74

Yes position

Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.33

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.82

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.67

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.69

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.46

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.56

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.38

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.65

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $5.79

No position

Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.52

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

No position

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

No position

Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

No position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

No 94.7% 2.11 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 43.5% 4.6 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

No 93% 2.15 shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No 66% 3.03 shares
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?

No 92% 2.17 shares
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

No 74% 2.7 shares
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

No 68% 2.94 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026?

Yes 91% 2.2 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?

Yes 93% 2.15 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?

Yes 93% 2.15 shares
Trump out as President before 2027?

No 90% 1.11 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 82.6% 6.05 shares