gerapoly

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $11.67
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $655
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $1.67

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $551.5
Potential payout: $602.73
Potential profit: $51.23
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $41.5

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $20.92
Potential payout: $345.76
Potential profit: $324.84
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $3.36
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $169.05
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1.64

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $147.67
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$1.15

Philadelphia Phillies position

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $129.87
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $12.86
Potential payout: $114.29
Potential profit: $101.43
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$7.14

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 28.2%
Current value: $31.73
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $80.63
Multiplier: 3.54x
User PnL: $11.73

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $12.12
Potential payout: $62.65
Potential profit: $50.53
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $6.92

Yes position

Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Implied probability: 58.6%
Current value: $17.48
Potential payout: $29.85
Potential profit: $12.37
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.7
Potential profit: $13.7
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $11.9
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $10.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $7.26
Potential payout: $7.41
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $7.23
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $7.23
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $7.19
Potential payout: $7.23
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $7.12
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $6.81
Potential payout: $7.06
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $6.97
Potential payout: $6.98
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $5.93
Potential payout: $6.9
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $4.66
Potential payout: $5.01
Potential profit: $0.35
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.51

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.8

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.29

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Cavaliers

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.84

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.55

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.61

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.33

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.78

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.44

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.79

Thunder position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.73

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET