Polymarket Trader

swapbox

0x43d57bd7ab0ef255e00bfcb52ab1f62d543f2e11

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.77K
Realized PnL: $9.07K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $1.32K
Potential payout: $1.91K
Potential profit: $591.67
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $400.49

No position

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $554.18
Potential payout: $821
Potential profit: $266.83
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $32.31

No position

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $357.2
Potential payout: $752
Potential profit: $394.8
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$229.36

Yes position

Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $329.79
Potential payout: $641
Potential profit: $311.21
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$150.96

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.4%
Current value: $140.7
Potential payout: $274
Potential profit: $133.3
Multiplier: 1.95x
User PnL: -$10.55

Yes position

Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $7.02
Potential payout: $156
Potential profit: $148.98
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$14.82

No position

Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 48.6%
Current value: $50.49
Potential payout: $104
Potential profit: $53.51
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $23.56

Yes position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.19
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $45.82
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$4.65

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $5.41
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $21.59
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$19.32

Yes position

Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $10.19
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $3.83
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $2.36
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $1.97
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Rippling IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.87
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.96

Yes position

Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $572.02

No position

Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $557.72

Yes position

Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $535.48

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 18, 2PM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $495

Yes position

Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-11?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $483.35

Yes position

Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.75

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 12, 4AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $459.59

Xavier Musketeers position

Xavier Musketeers vs. Clemson Tigers

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $413.01

Under position

Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $404.43

Yes position

Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $381.3

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $348.81

Yes position

Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $342.84

Yes position

Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 28 be less than 2,000,000?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.41

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $320.63

Yes position

Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $319.45

No position

Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.12

Under position

Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.14

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.65

No position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.2

Yes position

Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $261.9

Mid-America Christian Evangels position

Mid-America Christian Evangels vs. Campbell Fighting Camels

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $242.28

Yes position

Will Friendship win Best First Screenplay at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $212.94

No position

Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be between 2,100,000 and 2,300,000?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.78

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

Yes 5% 26 shares
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?

No 30% 826 shares
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

Yes 4% 248 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Yes 9% 171 shares
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?

Yes 60% 23 shares
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?

No 67% 137 shares
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

No 21% 1,036 shares
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

No 28% 486 shares
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?

No 87% 310 shares
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?

No 87% 314 shares
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

No 32% 243 shares
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

No 32% 255 shares