0x43dea88d3692adc0941b4f0cd8fb2c3eea6ee520

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $306.72
Potential payout: $329.8
Potential profit: $23.09
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$3.28

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $91.29
Potential payout: $105.54
Potential profit: $14.25
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.71

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $97.1
Potential profit: $97.1
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.57
Potential profit: $43.57
User PnL: -$18.15

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $37.04
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $29.52
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.48
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $11.62

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $15.04
Potential payout: $28.65
Potential profit: $13.61
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $10.17

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $21.76
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

SHEIN IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 32.6%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $22.23
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 3.07x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 16.8%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $21.51
Potential profit: $17.9
Multiplier: 5.97x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 35.8%
Current value: $7.22
Potential payout: $20.19
Potential profit: $12.97
Multiplier: 2.80x
User PnL: $3.22

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

No position

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.85
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$2

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $11.9
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.56
Potential profit: $11.56
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.41
Potential profit: $10.41
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.6%
Current value: $2.26
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.75
Multiplier: 4.43x
User PnL: -$0.62

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.08

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.5

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.83

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.45

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.2

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.95

No position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.2

Yes position

Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

Yes position

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.13

Yes position

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.11

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.3

No position

Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.62

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.45

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

No position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.45

Yes position

Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.7

No position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.68

No position

Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?