Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $256.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $6.28
Polymarket Trader
0x43E0F1fC0FF7724Cf70959F8b5Ae476c006e1caF-1751843510927
0x43e0f1fc0ff7724cf70959f8b5ae476c006e1caf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $500.93
- Realized PnL
- $363.96
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $166.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$93.98
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $145.43
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $4.57
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.23
Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $43
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $57
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$26
No position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $22.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $77.5
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$43.31
No position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$46.5
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $9.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $10.1
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$5.1
No position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $10.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $9.9
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$6.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.27
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.47
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.5
No position
Grok 5 released by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.6
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.53
Yes position
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.51
Yes position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.5
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.58
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.6
Yes position
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.63
No position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $12.54
No position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
Yes position
Grokipedia released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.65
No position
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
French election called by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.46
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.6
Yes position
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.48
No position
French election called by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 83.4% 300 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 46% 400 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No 65.8% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 45% 400 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes 94.8% 150 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 75% 160 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 73.3% 150 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 71% 10 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 82.5% 150 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 79% 157.08 shares
- Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes 64% 100 shares
- Grok 4.4 released by July 31?Yes 69% 100 shares