raymondpoincare

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $160.35
Potential payout: $106.9K
Potential profit: $106.74K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$118.45

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $455.89
Potential payout: $12.49K
Potential profit: $12.03K
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$268.28

Yes position

Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $33.09
Potential payout: $9.45K
Potential profit: $9.42K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $4.73

Yes position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $266.67
Potential payout: $7.62K
Potential profit: $7.35K
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$14.38

Yes position

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $138.06
Potential payout: $7.46K
Potential profit: $7.32K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$53.4

Yes position

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $52.47
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $6.94K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$9.95

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $51.1
Potential payout: $3.52K
Potential profit: $3.47K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$15.25

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $55.17
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $4.63

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $23.75
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.88K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$10.45

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $29.25
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.27K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$1.95

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $57.03
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$9.15

Yes position

Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $992.5
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $7.72
Potential payout: $812.5
Potential profit: $804.78
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $723.11
Potential profit: $720.58
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $8.44
Potential payout: $675
Potential profit: $666.56
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$5.62

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $17.71
Potential payout: $668.15
Potential profit: $650.44
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $42.63
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $507.38
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: -$12.93

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $43.56
Potential payout: $425
Potential profit: $381.44
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $4.74
Potential payout: $287.51
Potential profit: $282.76
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $15.13
Potential payout: $104.35
Potential profit: $89.22
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$5.61

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $49.91

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $40.95

Yes position

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $28.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.43

Yes position

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $23.23

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.07

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.7

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $12.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.99

Yes position

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 47%
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $11.44

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $9.46

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $7.17

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.7%
Multiplier: 4.42x
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET