Polymarket Trader

Warren-Buffett

0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $131.23K
Realized PnL: $139.92K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $18.05K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $81.95K
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: $2.22K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $74.89K
Potential payout: $75K
Potential profit: $112.5
User PnL: $47.88K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.47K
Potential payout: $70K
Potential profit: $68.53K
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$3.23K

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $6.5K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $43.5K
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $2.06K

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $14.88K
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $10.13K
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $7.34K

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $620
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.38K
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$2.22K

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $766.34
Potential payout: $17.42K
Potential profit: $16.65K
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: $373.02

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $2.1K
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $9.9K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $80.04

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $455
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.54K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$394.98

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $968.55
Potential payout: $8.42K
Potential profit: $7.45K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$228.99

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $245
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.76K
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $305
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.69K
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $379.42
Potential payout: $3.04K
Potential profit: $2.66K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$286.35

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $2.31K
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $407.39
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $135.8

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $2.4K
Potential payout: $2.65K
Potential profit: $255.98
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $165.79

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$94.98

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.25K
Potential payout: $2.26K
Potential profit: $9.04
User PnL: $2.26

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $443.91
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$328.61

Yes position

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $242.22
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 6.62x
User PnL: $59.15

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $225.18
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $7.77

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $98
Potential payout: $560
Potential profit: $462
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$75.6

Yes position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $89.62
Potential payout: $543.16
Potential profit: $453.54
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$24

No position

Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $367.32
Potential payout: $392.86
Potential profit: $25.54
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $84.69
Potential payout: $235.26
Potential profit: $150.57
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $25.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.83K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.41K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.5K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.25K

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.93K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.82K

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.12K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71K

No position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69K

Yes position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78K

Yes position

Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.21K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89K

Yes position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.84K

Yes position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.27K

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18K

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03K

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92K

Yes position

Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.88K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Yes 16% 3,422.18 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 21% 40,000 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 21% 10,000 shares
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show this week?

No 99.8% 73 shares
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top global Netflix show this week?

No 99.9% 47.04 shares
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Yes 99.9% 152.72 shares
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

No 89% 201.87 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 39.4% 318.37 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 37.4% 2,348.51 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 69.9% 150 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Yes 5.9% 5,000 shares
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Yes 16.2% 5.97 shares