Polymarket Trader

0x44D392440ade6643c08663B04648929725e31d5c-1769928246492

0x44d392440ade6643c08663b04648929725e31d5c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $47.81
Realized PnL: $62.52
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $207.04
Potential profit: $207.04
User PnL: -$61.74

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $47.81
Potential payout: $177.06
Potential profit: $129.25
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $17.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.85
Potential profit: $142.85
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.06
Potential profit: $98.06
User PnL: -$26.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.98
Potential profit: $38.98
User PnL: -$19.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.08
Potential profit: $10.08
User PnL: -$4.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.75
Potential profit: $9.75
User PnL: -$4.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.7
Potential profit: $9.7
User PnL: -$5.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.98
Potential profit: $8.98
User PnL: -$0.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.04
Potential profit: $5.04
User PnL: -$2.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.04
Potential profit: $5.04
User PnL: -$2.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.04
Potential profit: $5.04
User PnL: -$2.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.04
Potential profit: $5.04
User PnL: -$2.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.98
Potential profit: $4.98
User PnL: -$2.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.98
Potential profit: $4.98
User PnL: -$4.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.96
Potential profit: $4.96
User PnL: -$2.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92
Potential profit: $4.92
User PnL: -$2.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92
Potential profit: $4.92
User PnL: -$2.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92
Potential profit: $4.92
User PnL: -$2.41

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.27

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.83

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 17% 177.06 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Up 1.4% 142.85 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Down 49% 4.92 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Down 6% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Down 8% 4.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Down 32% 4.96 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Down 20.6% 4.97 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Up 83% 4.98 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Down 99% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Down 94% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Up 47% 4.92 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Up 49% 4.92 shares