No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $633.5
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $66.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $58.5
Polymarket Trader
liuxb1998
0x4514187bfccd0312d171ab0e146334a263d6b502
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.37K
- Realized PnL
- $1.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $375
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $25
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $22.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $277.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$111.5
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $286.65
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $13.35
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $35.65
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $298.49
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $1.5
- User PnL
- $102
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $199.2
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- User PnL
- $75.2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $96
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $104
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$102
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $197.8
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $2.2
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $119.99
- User PnL
- -$52.4
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.55
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$14.55
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$95.5
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $72.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $27.5
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $97
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $11
No position
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $94.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.95
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $550
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39
Yes position
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.2
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will Trump visit China by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.3
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 86% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 81% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 39% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 61% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 61% 100 shares
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No 80% 5.17 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 87% 200 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 94% 100 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 94% 100 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 92% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 39% 100 shares