balancedpreset

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $99.46
Potential payout: $112.39
Potential profit: $12.92
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $6.46

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.76
Potential profit: $101.76
User PnL: -$50.88

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $75.45
Potential payout: $88.25
Potential profit: $12.8
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.48
Potential profit: $76.48
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $57.42
Potential payout: $61.41
Potential profit: $3.99
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $4.42

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $56.8
Potential payout: $60.55
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $6.8

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $51.97
Potential payout: $57.77
Potential profit: $5.81
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.96

Yes position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $28.97
Potential payout: $52.2
Potential profit: $23.23
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$7.03

No position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $45.74
Potential payout: $51.69
Potential profit: $5.94
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $35.57
Potential payout: $47.11
Potential profit: $11.54
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $38.09
Potential payout: $42.09
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $27.39
Potential payout: $32.81
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $24.43
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $4.14
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.91
Potential profit: $27.91
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $22.85
Potential payout: $26.27
Potential profit: $3.42
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.42
Potential profit: $25.42
User PnL: -$18

No position

Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.93
Potential profit: $22.93
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $18.32
Potential payout: $21.18
Potential profit: $2.86
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $12.11
Potential payout: $16.25
Potential profit: $4.14
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.89

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $12.76
Potential payout: $15.85
Potential profit: $3.09
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $13.05
Potential payout: $15.82
Potential profit: $2.77
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $13.38
Potential payout: $15.12
Potential profit: $1.74
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $13.83
Potential payout: $14.69
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Over $45M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.62

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.67

No position

Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

No position

Over $60M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.51

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.2

No position

Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68

No position

Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.66

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $10M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.46

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $12M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.64

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

No position

Laso Finance FDV above $15M one day after launch

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48

No position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17

No position

Over $70M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09

No position

Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?