Polymarket Trader

pollution

0x45746cf20077faef288188c9e0e31228f63fab3e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.21K
Realized PnL: $7.8K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $915.97
Potential profit: $915.97
User PnL: -$197.51

Yes position

Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $66.5
Potential payout: $699.99
Potential profit: $633.49
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$141.49

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54%
Current value: $377.96
Potential payout: $699.92
Potential profit: $321.97
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: $10

No position

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $267.02
Potential payout: $628.27
Potential profit: $361.26
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $82.44

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $402.49
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$233.49

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $338
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $62
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $166

No position

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $309.5
Potential payout: $366.27
Potential profit: $56.77
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $64.08

No position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $279.21
Potential payout: $332.39
Potential profit: $53.18
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $146.56

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $239.74
Potential payout: $326.18
Potential profit: $86.44
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $57.08

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $301.73
Potential payout: $319.29
Potential profit: $17.56
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $81.79

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$111

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $299.99
User PnL: -$172

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $43.57
Potential payout: $229.33
Potential profit: $185.76
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $4.02

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $224.99
Potential profit: $224.99
User PnL: -$30.4

No position

Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $193.62
Potential payout: $217.56
Potential profit: $23.93
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $110.83

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $115
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $181
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $23

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $129
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $71
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $11

No position

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $80
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $120
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$7

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $85.87
Potential payout: $117.62
Potential profit: $31.76
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $8.64

No position

UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $15.19
Potential payout: $112.53
Potential profit: $97.34
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $3.19

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $36.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $63.5
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $21.5

Derrick Lewis position

UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$21

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $437.37

No position

Will Artemis II launch by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $431.21

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $402.77

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $373.39

Yes position

AWS service disrupted by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $362.43

Lopes position

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Ends Sep 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345

No position

Will Artemis II launch by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $341.36

Johnson position

UFC Fight Night: Kavanagh vs. Johnson

Ends Aug 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $327

Usman position

Usman vs. Walker

Ends Oct 18, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $326.78

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $326

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $317.8

No position

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.99

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304

Murphy position

UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.63

Elliott position

UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakura

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.97

Rendon position

Noche UFC: Rendon vs. Pereira

Ends Sep 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $296.99

Yes position

US bank failure by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $296.87

Thicknesse position

UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. Musasa

Ends Sep 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286

No position

Will Elon register the America Party before October?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.19

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.3

Imavov position

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

Ends Sep 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $252.99

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $252.59

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

No 41% 45 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 199.99 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

No 15% 200 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Brendson Ribeiro 9% 100 shares
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)

Manolo Zecchini 11% 99.98 shares
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims)

Stewart Nicoll 21% 10 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?

No 56% 3.02 shares