Polymarket Trader

havoclian

@sanglianw

0x45a686c8c3823e02f2bfd951bf2af8d2c79a9c94

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $78.5
Realized PnL: $426.15
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$27

No position

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $213
Potential profit: $213
User PnL: -$10.01

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$4

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168
Potential profit: $168
User PnL: -$1.01

No position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156
Potential profit: $156
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $8.8
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $101.2
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$1.1

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$16

No position

Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $69.7
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $7.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $117.19

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.79

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.41

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.23

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $24.8

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.37

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.68

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.23

No position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.71

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.93

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.8

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.72

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.31

No position

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.24

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.84

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.63

Yes position

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33

No position

Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.28

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.15

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.26

No position

Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.63

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 80% 211.5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Down 71% 26.31 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Down 19% 26.32 shares
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Yes 92.3% 104.08 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 78.1% 34 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

No 82% 58.82 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

No 34% 58.82 shares
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?

Yes 17% 45 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes 8% 100 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

No 97.7% 139.92 shares
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Yes 20% 36 shares
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Yes 57% 18.42 shares